NBA Three-Point Issues
It was a curiosity when the NBA introduced the three-point line in the 1979-80 season. Early on, the shot wasn't a significant part of teams' offensive strategies, and many players were reluctant to embrace it. However, the three-point shot has exploded in importance over the decades, particularly since the mid-2010s.
Fast-forward to the 2024-2025 season, and we are witnessing an era where three-pointers dominate NBA offenses like never before. Teams shooting over 30 threes per game are no longer an anomaly—it's the norm. The Boston Celtics, for example, have taken it to an extreme with over 50 three-point attempts per game, and the trend is mirrored across much of the league.
A decade ago, in the 2014-2015 season, only the Houston Rockets were shooting over 30 three-pointers per game (32.7 3PA). Most teams hovered around 20-25 attempts per game. Fast forward to today, and 23 teams are shooting over 35 threes per game, which shows how deeply the three-point shot has been integrated into every team's offense. The rapid rise in attempts is due to several factors:
-The rise of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and the Warriors' revolutionary strategy centered around three-point shooting changed how teams approached the game. Teams now believe they can emulate that success by prioritizing the three-point shot.
-With the growing influence of analytics, teams now focus more on efficient scoring—three-pointers and layups. Mid-range shooting, long viewed as inefficient, has become almost obsolete.
-Players, especially younger ones, are now training from a much earlier age to be proficient three-point shooters, increasing the overall skill level from beyond the arc.
Impact on the NBA's Style of Play
The modern NBA is a three-point-dominated league. This is not just due to the sheer volume of three-pointers but also the way offenses are designed almost exclusively to create open looks from beyond the arc. However, this heavy reliance on threes has led to a more predictable, less dynamic style of play:
-While a three-point shot can be incredibly efficient, it often comes at the expense of other aspects of the game—like mid-range shooting, post-play, and even defensive intensity. The emphasis on threes has led to some of the most high-volume but low-possession games, where teams prioritize shooting the ball quickly over getting the best shot.
-The NBA once had a rich tradition of post moves, pick-and-rolls, and mid-range jumpers. Now, offenses often revolve around isolations, screens, and getting open three-point shots. The idea of a balanced offense, which blends inside play and outside shooting, is rare in today's game.
The Fan Perspective
-For younger fans, especially those who witnessed the Warriors' dominance, the three-point-heavy nature of the game is a source of excitement. The fast-paced action, the emphasis on scoring, and the individual shooting talent on display make the game a thrilling spectacle. Players like Stephen Curry have added finesse and entertainment to the three-point shot, making the three-point revolution a truly exhilarating experience for these fans.
-For older fans who grew up watching the league during its 'Golden Era' in the 1980s and 1990s, a time when the game was characterized by a variety of play styles and dominant big men, the game's current state can feel like a shell of what made the NBA great. The lack of diverse play styles and the dominance of the three-pointer have led some to believe the game is losing its traditional appeal.
The Impact on Defense
There's a growing concern that the NBA is, perhaps, de-emphasizing defensive play in favor of high-scoring shootouts. Some players and coaches have lamented that the current rules and officiating have made playing physical, hard-nosed defense more difficult. Key factors include:
-Over the years, the NBA has implemented regulations that benefit offensive players, such as the freedom of movement for players without the ball, which has made it harder for defenders to be physical. Additionally, there's a growing perception that the officiating has become more lenient toward offensive players, especially regarding fouls on three-point attempts or during drive-and-kick scenarios.
-The NBA's shift toward small-ball lineups has made dominant big men, who used to be defense anchors, almost obsolete. Players like Shaquille O'Neal or Hakeem Olajuwon, whose presence in the post was a key part of their teams' success, are now nearly a thing of the past. With fewer elite post players, the defense has become less varied, relying more on perimeter defense, but even that has been diluted due to the abundance of shooters.
Ratings Decline
Key injuries to significant stars often lead to a dip in interest. Fans might tune out if the stars are sidelined for extended periods or if marquee matchups are less compelling.
During a presidential election year, attention is often diverted toward political events, especially in the United States. This can lead to a drop in sports viewership in general as people become more focused on the political climate.
The NBA's billion-dollar TV deal with networks like Disney, Amazon, NBC, and TNT has shifted how the game is consumed. While the NBA still garners significant revenue from these deals, the rise of streaming platforms means fewer viewers may be watching games on traditional TV, leading to a decline in TV ratings. This shift in viewing habits could have long-term implications for the NBA's popularity and revenue streams.
As the three-point revolution peaks, fans may feel like they've seen a game dominated by the same play style. The constant barrage of threes can feel repetitive and monotonous. As you mentioned, many fans are yearning for a return to more balanced, diverse offenses—ones that feature a mix of traditional inside play, mid-range shots, and an exciting blend of offense and defense.
Will the NBA Adjust?
Given the overwhelming dominance of the three-point shot, the NBA is at a crossroads. Should it consider changes? The answer may lie in a balanced approach that acknowledges the three-point shot's importance in the modern game while preserving the diverse playstyles that made the NBA exciting. The potential for adjustments brings hope for a future that retains the thrill of the three-point revolution while reintroducing the balance and diversity that fans crave.
-There have been discussions about moving the three-point line back, making it harder for players to take as many high-percentage threes as possible. Another option could be reducing the reliance on the three-pointer by tweaking the rules to encourage more balanced scoring.
-One way to bring back excitement could be to focus on increasing defensive schemes and improving teams' ability to defend without sacrificing too much on offense. The NBA may need to introduce subtle rule changes to allow for more physical defense without turning the game into an overly violent or disruptive sport.
The NBA's three-point shot has fundamentally changed the game, but this shift has created opportunities and challenges. While it has made the league more exciting for younger fans who appreciate the high-scoring, fast-paced style of play, it may have alienated older fans who miss the traditional aspects of the game. The decline in ratings could be attributed to this shift and external factors like injuries, streaming habits, and the political climate. Whether the league will adjust to reintroduce a balance between offense, defense, and diversity of playing styles remains to be seen.